From El Niño to Repellent Supply: why anticipating demand matters

In recent months, El Niño has returned to the center of global attention. This climate phenomenon, linked to the abnormal warming of Pacific Ocean waters, is known for its ability to disrupt rainfall patterns, humidity levels and temperatures across large regions, from Latin America to parts of Asia, Africa and even southern Europe.

While its effects vary geographically, one consequence is increasingly evident: climate variability can create favorable conditions for the proliferation of disease-carrying mosquitoes, bringing mosquito-borne diseases such as Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya back to the forefront of public health concerns.

Climate signals and health risk: an established connection

Mosquito species such as Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya, thrive in environments characterized by heat, standing water and high humidity. Climatic events like El Niño can amplify these conditions by altering rainfall distribution and increasing temperatures, accelerating mosquito life cycles and expanding breeding sites in both urban and peri-urban environments.

As a result, what begins as a meteorological phenomenon quickly evolves into a broader challenge, one that involves public health, consumer safety and market dynamics. When climate-driven risks rise, awareness among health authorities, media and consumers follows, driving increased demand for personal protection solutions.

From awareness to market pressure

Historically, the insect repellent market has tended to react rather than anticipate. Demand often spikes when outbreaks are already underway, leading to a recurring pattern:

• sudden increases in consumption
• pressure on raw materials and finished products
• price volatility
• risk of shortages during peak season

These dynamics have been observed during previous high-incidence periods, when reactive purchasing replaced structured planning. Under such pressure, supply chains, especially for trusted active ingredients, can quickly become constrained, limiting flexibility in sourcing, formulation and long-term continuity.

Icaridin: a strategic active ingredient

In this context, Icaridin (also known as Picaridin or Saltidin) has emerged as a key component in modern repellent formulations. Widely recognized as an effective alternative to traditional actives, it combines high efficacy against mosquitoes and other dangerous biting insects (i.e. ticks, midges…), with a favorable sensory and safety profile.

Its characteristics respond closely to evolving consumer expectations:

• long-lasting protection
• skin-friendly, non-greasy feel
• suitability for family and daily use
• compatibility with multiple formats, including sprays, lotions and wipes

As awareness of mosquito-borne diseases grows, demand tends to concentrate around well-performing and trusted actives like Icaridin, further reinforcing its strategic importance in the market.

Why planning ahead makes the difference

In a market influenced by unpredictable external drivers such as climate and epidemiology, advance planning becomes more than a logistical advantage, it is a strategic necessity.

Anticipating demand peaks allows companies to:

• secure access to key active ingredients well ahead of peak season
• avoid last-minute sourcing under unfavorable commercial conditions
• ensure formulation stability and regulatory compliance across markets
• maintain continuity of supply during periods of high demand

Early procurement is particularly critical when demand concentrates around specific actives, reducing the risk of bottlenecks and ensuring reliable product availability.

At the same time, companies that adopt a proactive approach can stabilize pricing strategies, support their customers more effectively and position themselves as reliable partners in times of market pressure.

Preparing for what comes next

While climate phenomena like El Niño cannot be controlled, their potential impact can be anticipated. The growing intersection between climate events, public health awareness and consumer behavior is reshaping the pest control industry.

This creates an opportunity to shift from reactive purchasing to proactive risk management, leveraging climate and epidemiological signals to guide smarter planning decisions.

For manufacturers, brand owners and distributors, the question is no longer whether demand will increase, but when and how prepared supply chains will be.

In an environment shaped by climate variability, early planning is no longer optional: it is a defining element of responsible and strategic market leadership.

Learn more about: Saltidin 

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